Semi-Finals Monday July 29, 2002 CABBAGETOWN -- Well, the four favourites prevailed in the first round, but it didn't go at all like I thought it would. Toronto and Orangeville got scared half to death by the Kings and Warriors, while Peterborough had a much easier time eliminating Six Nations than I would have thought possible. On to the second round: St. Catharines Athletics vs. Orangeville Northmen: The A's should prevail, but it's oing to cost them their undefeated season. Orangeville may be banged up (Peter Veltman tore up his knee eight minutes into the whitby series), but they found enough fight to rally from three games down to eliminate Whitby. St. Catharines has a complete team, with offence, defence, transition, depth, coaching and goaltending to spare. I would love to see them go back in time and take on the 1999 Warriors or the 1995 Northmen. The goaltending gulf is huge in this series, with rookie Scott Patterson tending the twine for the HornHeads, and the great Matt Vinc dominating the crease for the A's. Recent series between these two teams have been very low scoring. Orangeville will hope to keep it that way (it's their best chance), while the Peninsula Boys will be working hard to fill the net every night. Expect to see some 13-5 games for the A's -- and at least one 7-6 verdict for the Northmen. St. Catharines in five. Toronto Beaches vs. Peterborough Lakers: Two good, possibly very good, probably not great teams. On paper, the match is pretty even. Goaltending still -- I think -- slightly favours Peterborough. John McLellan has had a fine year for the Beach, but Orillia found weaknesses in his game in-close, and almost ended Toronto's season. Cole Murray, to me, is just about as good as it gets, south of Matt Vinc, and Jamie McIntyre is a good, reliable second choice for Peterborough. Defence is Toronto all the way. Orillia proved you can beat the Beach with relentless fast-breaking, and no doubt Peterborough will try the same thing. But the Lakers are a different team, more prone to smashmouth runs down the middle than soaring passes over the top. Toronto can handle this. Look for Dan Carey, Greg McIntyre and Raweras Mitchell of the Lakers to try to emulate Orillia's Jeff Zywicki and harass McLellan from the edge of the crease. Those guys can all play ball, but none of them have a fraction of Zywicki's Plan-B moves. Offence? Well, Scott Evans and Brad Self are huge for the Lakers, but Toronto's pesky hornet gang of contributors can, I believe, outproduce them if they hustle and keep the ball moving. The Lakers have spped, but they prefer a slower game. Up the tempo, and Laker passing falls apart before Toronto's does. Head-to-head, Toronto won both games, and just creamed the Self-less Petes in exhibition. The match-ups seem to favour Toronto in the long run, and that's what I'm going to predict. Toronto in seven.
Quarter Finals
Semi-Finals
Monday July 29, 2002 ST.CATHARINES(24-0) vs ORANGEVILLE(18-9) Previous Meetings: 2000- Final, Orangeville 4 St.Catharines 1 1996- Semi Final, Orangeville 4 St.Catharines 0 1995- Final, Orangeville 4 St.Catharines 0 1993- Final, Orangeville 4 St.Catharines 1 all time record: Orangeville 16 wins to 2, Orangeville 4 series to 0 It's time for the Athletics to settle some old scores. If they don't do it this year then they'll never do it. They are defending Minto Cup champs and they proved themselves the better team during the regular season, including an embarrassment of the Northmen a month ago. They're bigger, they have more offensive talent and better goaltending. If that wasn't enough, the Double Blues are rested and facing an beaten up opponent. Talk about rolling out the red carpet! Now Orangeville has a few things in its favour. The Hornheads are battled hardened. If that doesn't lead to a physical collapse then it can be a strength. They're definite underdogs with nothing to lose, facing a team which has had a cake walk in 2002 and yet to face any adversity. Also the Northmen veterans are virtually all their top scorers. These guys shouldn't go quietly. Still, this series has four games written all over it. Now a loss would actually be a good thing for the A's. It would better prepare them for their only real challenge to come in the league final. Frankly, the Northmen do not pose a serious challenge. Rested, healthy and well prepared they might have been in a position to surprise. Under the current situation they're practically on life support. A vivacious patient, nonetheless a cripple. Now what can Orangeville do to give themselves a chance? Introducing St.Catharines to playoff lacrosse is a must. The A's have never seen the kind of stuff that went on in the Whitby series(not even in last year's Minto Final). It's time for the Northmen to show their opponents what it means to hurt. I'm not talking about the undisciplined, doneybrook style which marred Orangeville's early playoff games. Rather it's good tough, even nasty, in your face lacrosse which they must play. But smart lacrosse. I think we can assume the Hornheads have learned from the mistakes they made a week ago. So the game plan is to get Craig Conn going, show Jon Iannucci what real lacrosse is, give Sean Greenhalgh some hard knocks and not let Matt Vinc hide behind his Maginot Line. Throwing caution to the wind is all Orangeville really can do. If luck is on their side, if the A's power play doesn't punish them every time and if the graduating players produce consistently then we might see a surprise. Players to watch: Mike Longboat. It's players like Longboat or Hominuck or Paniccia who will drive a quick nail into Orangeville's coffin. Scott Patterson and Josh Agar. Nothing else matters if the Northmen netminding lets in easy goals. Prediction: The Northmen character is worth one win. Beyond that, it will take Orangeville to prove St.Catharines is the flukiest 24-0 team in the history of sports. Not likely. But if the Northmen penalty killers dominate this series then they should be in every game. St.Catharines in five. TORONTO(18-9) vs PETERBOROUGH(18-6) Previous Meetings 1996- Quarter Final, Peterborough 3 Toronto 2 1995- Quarter Final, Peterborough 4 Toronto 3 1994- Quarter Final, Peterborough 4 Toronto 1 all time record: Peterborough 11 wins to 6, Peterborough 3 series to 0 This is the first season ever the Beaches have had a winning record against the Lakers. They've beaten them 3 times, including an exhibition tilt. All of that means absolutely nothing now. What matters is that for Game One Toronto must not letdown coming off that emotional seventh game win last Friday. What also matters is that Game Two will be the Beaches fourth game in six nights. A tough handicap to begin. Then the Beach Boys get evicted from their home arena! As many people know I've had Peterborough pegged for the Final since April. I've also had them beating Toronto ever since a Semi Final matchup appeared on the cards. Given the disadvantages now facing Toronto, I'm not about to change my mind. The Beaches were brilliant in surviving that Orillia challenge. The series win will do wonders for this team's future. But not their immediate future. Looking back to last year, the Lakers came up with a huge series win. They followed it with a brief Semi Final appearance. Nevertheless that win made Peterborough a much better team in 2002. Thus they swept through the First Round with ease. Toronto will also benefit from their series win. That will become apparent in 2003 when they are legitimate Minto Cup contenders. For the 2002 Semi Final, they are in a difficult position. Why will Peterborough win this series? 1) They raised their level of play for the playoffs, while Toronto certainly slipped back their first two games. 2) The Lakers are healthy and rested, Beaches are not. 3) A demanding schedule, including three games in three nights to conclude the series. No matter how well Toronto performs, that conclusion will surely be the death of them. 4) There's little to choose between these teams. They both have great goaltending and tough defences. Peterborough's offence is more polished, while Toronto's scoring depth has been a pleasant surprise. But the Laker's can throw the best fast break in Junior lacrosse at the Beaches. That's a huge advantage. 5) We saw how, at times, Toronto could not cope with Orillia's offence. The Kings would spread them out and run circles around them. On paper, the Lakers bring more offensive power to the table than Orillia had to offer. None of this is meant to denigrate Toronto. They've a great team and they proved last week that they've got the winning character which so often eludes up and coming teams. But they are facing a Laker team which, I believe, is focused on winning the Minto Cup. Plus the Beaches are not at full strength when they take them on. Yet they've already proven that you can't underestimate them, nor count them out. Still I do feel this is Peterborough's series to win or lose. Players to watch: Kyle Wailes scored five goals the last time these clubs met. The latter part of the Orillia series he was not very evident. Except for a few assists here and there his contribution was minimal. Perhaps his former teammates threw him off his game. There was certainly loads of trash talking. Wailes needs to be at the forefront against Peterborough. Scott Eldridge. Eldridge-Magee is the featured match up on draws. It will be a key one. The Lakers' explosiveness will depend on their gaining possession immediately after scoring. Eldridge has given them that all year long. Draws and loose balls are the areas Toronto must not let Peterborough dominate. They are also the areas where the Beaches will first falter in if they are tired. Prediction: It may sound like I'm writing Toronto off but it's because I'm very high on this Peterborough squad. The Beaches will not go quietly. If they can get into four close games this series could be theirs(just ask the Kings about that one). I'll take Toronto in a couple of close contests but the Lakers will prevail in six games.
Quarter Finals Sunday July 14, 2002 ST.CATHARINES vs BRAMPTON Previous meetings: 1995 Quarter Final- St.Catharines 4 Brampton 1 1991 Semi Final- St.Catharines 4 Brampton 1 1976 Quarter Final- Bramalea 4 St.Catharines 0 1970 Semi Final- Bramalea 4 St.Catharines 0 1964 Semi Final- Brampton 3 St.Catharines 2 1963 Semi Final- Brampton 4 St.Catharines 1 1959 Final- Brampton 4 St.Catharines 1 1956 Semi Final- Brampton 3 St.Catharines 1 1952 Final- Brampton 4 St.Catharines 0 1950 Final- St.Catharines 2 Brampton 0 1948 Final- St.Catharines 3 Brampton 0 all time record: Brampton 28 wins to 18; Brampton 7 series to 4. A seven year playoff drought is over for the Excelsiors. Ironic that they once again face the Athletics. The '95 series saw the infamous brawl at Burgoyne when several Brampton players took the fights into the stands. This series should be tamer and less competitive. Can the Excelsiors win their first playoff game in seven years? In yet another ironic twist Coach Tallevi led Wallaceburg past unbeaten Elora a year ago in a major upset. Should the Double Blues beware? The last time Brampton finished in eight place, in 1980, they went into Whitby for the first Quarter final game and beat the first place team and eventual Minto Cup winner. Only on rare occasions has the eighth place team even won a playoff game against the top club. The '76 Gaels are the only team to take two in one series. After 1980, the next squad to win a game was the '93 Warriors, who took Game Four against St.Catharines. Since then only Orillia has had any success as a number eight seed. At the other end of the table are the perfect Athletics. They've had the first perfect regular season since the Peterborough squads of '86 and '87. Both those teams swept through the OLA playoffs without a loss then advanced to win the Minto Cup. Other perfect teams were 1981 Peterborough, 1974 Peterborough, 1972 Peterborough and 1968 Oshawa. Each became Minto Cup champs. Only the 1948 St.Catharines Athletics failed. After a 10-0 regular season they were beated by Vancouver in the Minto Final. So the opportunity is there for the Excelsiors to make history. We're not holding our breath however. Brampton is sadly outmatched. Not even their recent good form will save them against the Minto Cup Holders. This series will simply show how focused the A's are and perhaps, if their interest is lacking, it will give their future opponents reason to hope that St.Catharines can be had. Players To Watch: Dan Dawson has become a one man show. Any offensive positives the Excelsiors can muster will come from him. Jon Iannucci was there when the A's needed him in May. He's since faded into the background slightly. Now it's playoff time and we'll see what this western star is made of. Prediction: Four low scoring wins for the Double Blues. Expect the scores to be something like 12-4. Game Two in Brampton will be the Excelsiors' best shot at winning. ORANGEVILLE vs WHITBY Previous meetings: 2000 Semi Final- Orangeville 4 Whitby 1 1996 Final- Orangeville 4 Whitby 1 all time record: Orangeville 8 wins to 2; Orangeville 2 series to 0. An unusual matchup for so early in the playoffs. Last season was the first time since 1994 that both these teams did not make the Semi Final. The Northmen fell short a year ago. Expect the Warriors to miss out this time around. Two very interesting teams who should be able to step on the floor and be competitive against anybody. That bodes well for lacrosse fans as this showdown has the potential to be the best Quarter final series. But will it be? The HornHeads have been arguably the second best lacrosse team in the province the past five weeks. Once they got all their veteran players back from school and got them settled into the lineup this team has progressed constantly. Whitby has been the more consistent team over the whole season. They've been consistently inconsistent. From May to July nothing has changed for the Warriors. They play a great period then follow it with a bad period. Or they start slowly and finish strong. The one thing they have not done all year has been to play a full sixty minutes of lacrosse. Is it possible to magically turn on the intensity for the post season? Whitby has the veteran players to pick up their game. But until they actually do it there will be serious doubts about this club. That doesn't mean Orangeville can go ahead and rent the bus for their first trip to St.Catharines. This series could be very competitive. The Warriors may have one big advantage between the pipes. Scott Wylie is a veteran with lots to prove. Scott Patterson is very inexperienced and will see his first ever playoff game next week. If the games are close enough goaltending could sink the Northmen(one need only glance back at last year's Quarter Final series.). Given recent form - a surging Orangeville squad against an inconsistent Whitby team - this series could be a quick win for the Northmen if the ball bounces their way. If Whitby gets the breaks this could be a fun one. Of course the Warriors must give themselves a chance to take advantage of any breaks they get. To do that their leaders must bring their best to the table. Anything less and Whitby will be embarrassed. Players To Watch: Disappointing Mike Morrison is the spark which can ignite the Warriors, or he could continue to be the disappointment which drags them down. Scott Patterson is the one Northman with added pressure on him. Prediction: It's too easy to guarantee a Northmen win but say I don't know in how many games. So I'll say Orangeville in five close ones, none decided by more than four goals. I don't wish to jinx the HornHeads by picking a sweep, plus Whitby has too good a team and deserve more respect than that. However, I would not be surprised if certain Whitby players throw in the towel early and the Warrior playoff exit turns into an act of mercy. Turmoil will doom any team, regardless of its talent. TORONTO/PETERBOROUGH/ORILLIA/SIX NATIONS Matchups still to be determined, pending Arrows visit to Brampton Sunday afternoon. A Six Nation's loss and they will probably have to turn around and travel to Toronto Monday night. So it is a meaningful game. Previous meetings: Toronto vs Orillia have never met. Toronto vs Six Nations 1992 Quarter Final- Six Nations 4 Toronto 0 Peterborough vs Orillia have never met. Peterborough vs Six Nations 2001 Semi Final- Six Nations 4 Peterborough 0 1993 Quarter Final- Six Nations 4 Peterborough 2 all time record: Six Nations 8 wins to 2; Six Nations 2 series to 0. TORONTO BEACHES With their defence, size and goaltending this is one formidable opponent. They will make their first trip to the Semi Final since 1993. I don't care who they play, they are too strong and well coached to be upset. Plus they've been playing post-season style lacrosse all year long. Only negative regarding Beaches is the rumour that they will be turfed out of Ted Reeve for the playoffs. That's an unsettling developement no team needs. Player To Watch: The most interesting thing to look for in the first round will be the return of Ryan Cousins. His offensive talent will be desperately needed in August PETERBOROUGH LAKERS They are exactly where I expected them to be and they have not disappointed anyone. In fact their defence is much improved which bodes well for the playoffs. They've also improved their depth by adding players such as Raweras Mitchell and Jonathan Kane. There's no reason this team can't go all the way to the Final, as most people have expected them to do. Nevertheless, they have won a bunch of close games this year so they can expect a competitve Quarter final series. Unlike last year they will be in a new position - expected to win. Will they accept that challenge and raise their game to a higher level or will they let the pressure get to them and end up having to fight for their lives just to advance? The Lakers should be involved in the highest scoring playoff series, against either Six Nations or Orillia. They should also win. Player To Watch: Let's see how well Raweras Mitchell fits into the Lakers now and if he can become a consistent offensive performer. ORILLIA KINGS This is the team no one wants to meet. They have two solid goaltenders. Luke Wiles and Jeff Zywicki are two of the best. Most importantly, seemingly washed up Troy Thompson is happy and has rediscovered his game. Team Turmoil appears contented heading into the post-season. Now is the time for them to make up for all the disappointments of the past. Against Toronto they will likely face too much defence for them to handle. It could still be a long homer series, with the Kings being tough in Rama. I wouldn't be surprised to see Orillia take the Beach Boys past five games. Against Peterborough, the opportunity to pull a big upset will exist. The Lakers undersized defence will allow Orillia's highly skilled players the space they need to thrive. Solving Cole Murray will be a problem. And stopping the Laker's offence a bigger problem. Still the Kings will have their chance. If the Green Machine disappoints then the Rama Boys will surprise. Expect Peterborough to prevail in a six game struggle. Player To Watch: Troy Thompson will either be an inspiration or he'll be invisible. SIX NATIONS ARROWS A month ago we were all having visions of 1997. How things can change in a month. The Arrows seem to be limping towards the finish line. Their inexperience is really showing. That means trouble for the Quarter Final. Yes they had regular season success against both Peterborough and Toronto. The playoffs will be a different story. The Arrows could still be very competitive, however, how they fare will be an indicator as to how good Toronto and Peterborough really are. The Arrows simply don't have the experience or talent to succeed in the post-season. The question isn't whether Six Nations can win a series. The question is whether they will be able to win any games. Player To Watch: Ken Barrett. Strong goaltending to compliment the Arrows offensive talent could allow them to spring a surprise or two.
